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Frank E Harrell Jr, PhD

Professor of Biostatistics

Department Chair

 FrankH.jpg
E-mail:   f.harrell@vanderbilt.edu
Phone:  615.322.2001
Fax:      615.343.4924
 Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
Department of Biostatistics
S-2323 Medical Center North
Nashville, TN 37232-2158

Research Interests

  • Statistical analysis
  • Clinical prediction
  • Statistical models
  • Statistical computing and open source software
  • Statistical graphics
  • Statistical reporting
  • Research data management
  • Cardiovascular disease
  • Medical applications of statistics
  • Clinical trials
  • Clinical safety assessment and analysis in pharmaceutical trials
  • Risk adjustment
  • Health services and outcomes research
  • Pharmaceutical research
  • Medical diagnosis and prognosis

Philosophy of Biostatistics

  • Biostatistics needs to be fully integrated into biomedical research; experimental design is all important
  • Don't be afraid of using modern methods
  • Avoid categorizing continuous variables and predicted values at all costs
  • Don't assume that anything operates linearly
  • Account for model uncertainty and avoid it when possible by using subject matter knowledge
  • Use the bootstrap routinely
  • Make the sample size a random variable when possible
  • Consider using Bayesian methods
  • Use excellent graphics, liberally

Future Directions

  • Bayesian statistics

Awards

  • Fellow, American Statistical Association, August 2005
  • Distinguished Alumnus Award, School of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alabama Birmingham, February 2005
  • Mitchell Lecturer, Department of Biostatistics, Glasgow University, 2008

Hobbies | Pictures

Biography | Brief Bio

Dr Harrell received a PhD in Biostatistics from the University of North Carolina in 1979 under the direction of PK Sen. He was co-managing editor of the journal Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology from 1998-2005, is an Associate Editor of Statistics in Medicine, is on the Editorial Board of American Heart Journal, Medical Decision Making, and Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, and is a consultant to FDA. Previously Dr Harrell was on the FDA Cardio-Renal Advisory Committee, a consultant to the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee, an AHCPR (now AHRQ) study section, and was the director of the SUPPORT (Study to Understand Prognoses Preferences Outcomes and Risks of Treatment) Statistical Center for nine years. SUPPORT concerned end of life care and decision making of primarily elderly patients with one of 8 end-stage diseases.

As reflected in his 188 peer-reviewed publications, Dr Harrell has devoted his career to the study of patient outcomes in general and specifically to the development of accurate prognostic and diagnostic models and models for many other patient responses. Much of Dr Harrell's work has been applied to health services and outcomes research, technology evaluation, observational databases, and clinical trials. His primary methodologic research relates to development of reliable statistical models, quantifying predictive accuracy, modeling strategies utilizing data reduction methods, estimating covariable transformations, model validation methods, penalized estimation (shrinkage), and missing data imputation. He has researched methods to estimate how continuous predictors relate to outcomes without assuming linearity, showing the advantages of piecewise cubic polynomials or spline functions. All of this work has taken into account that a risk model's likely performance on a new subject sample should be the touchstone. He has extended Efron's bootstrap estimator of the "optimism" in a model's predictive accuracy to validate more complex survival and risk models. His book Regression Modeling Strategies with Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis (2001, Springer-Verlag) contains theory, examples, and detailed case studies demonstrating the use of many modern statistical modeling tools.

Dr Harrell spent 17 years in the Biometry and Cardiology Divisions and the Clinical Research Institute of Duke University Medical Center, where he taught the Regression Modeling Strategies course to fellows in the Masters of Health Sciences in Biometry Program (now the M.S. in Clinical Investigation Program) and mentored many fellows, mostly from the Department of Medicine. In 1996 Dr. Harrell founded the Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology in the Department of Health Evaluation Sciences at the University of Virginia. There he taught Statistical Computing and Graphics, Biostatistical Modeling, and Advanced Data Analysis and assisted in the teaching of Clinical Trials Methodology, Comprehensive Introduction to Clinical Investigation, and Statistical Thinking in Biomedical Research. He directed the Clinical Investigation Track of the M.S. in Health Evaluation Sciences program, and was a co-director in the T21 and K30 clinical investigation training grants for complementary and alternative medicine, at UVa. Overall, Dr Harrell has taught biostatistics and research methodology to hundreds of physicians since the early 1980s, and has overseen research projects of dozens of medical fellows. In 2003 Dr Harrell became the founding chair of the Department of Biostatistics at Vanderbilt. His new area of emphasis is pharmaceutical safety, related to developing better ways to present safety information to data monitoring committees and developing new methods for pharmaceutical researchers to explore clinical chemistry, hematology, adverse events, and ECG data in Phase II and III randomized clinical trials.

Peer-Reviewed Publications | PubMed

  1. Karvanen J, Harrell FE. Visualizing covariate in proportional hazards model. Stat in Med 2009; 28:1957-1966. PMID:19378282
  2. Frangoul H, Wang L, Harrell FE Jr, Manes B, Calder C, Domm J. Unrelated umbilical cord blood transplantation in children with immune deficiency: results of a multicenter study. Bone Marrow Transplant. 2009 Jun 22. [Epub ahead of print] PMID:19543326 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
  3. Toman CV, Dunn WR, Spindler KP, Amendola A, Andrish JT, Bergfeld JA, Flanigan D, Jones MH, Kaeding CC, Marx RG, Matava MJ, McCarty EC, Parker RD, Wolcott M, Vidal A, Wolf BR, Huston LJ, Harrell FE Jr, Wright RW. Success of meniscal repair at anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. Am J Sports Med. 2009 Jun;37(6):1111-5. PMID:19465734 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
  4. Hlatky MA, Greenland P, Arnett DK, Ballantyne CM, Criqui MH, Elkind MS, Go AS, Harrell FE Jr, Hong Y, Howard BV, Howard VJ, Hsue PY, Kramer CM, McConnell JP, Normand SL, O'Donnell CJ, Smith SC Jr, Wilson PW; American Heart Association Expert Panel on Subclinical Atherosclerotic Diseases and Emerging Risk Factors and the Stroke Council. Criteria for evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2009 May 5;119(17):2408-16. Epub 2009 Apr 13. Erratum in: Circulation. 2009 Jun 30;119(25):e606. Hong, Yuling [added]. PMID:19364974 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
  5. Aliferis CF, Statnikov A, Tsamardinos I, Schildcrout JS, Shepherd BE, Harrell FE Jr. Factors influencing the statistical power of complex data analysis protocols for molecular signature development from microarray data. PLoS One. 2009;4(3):e4922. Epub 2009 Mar 17. PMID:19290050 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
  6. Janssen KJ, Vergouwe Y, Donders AR, Harrell FE Jr, Chen Q, Grobbee DE, Moons KG. Dealing with Missing Predictor Values When Applying Clinical Prediction Models. Clin Chem 2009 Mar 12. Epub ahead of print. PMID:19282357
  7. Nass R, Pezzoli SS, Oliveri MC, Patrie JT, Harrell FE, Clasey JL, et al. Effects of an oral ghrelin mimetic on body composition and clinical outcomes in health older adults. A randomized trial. Ann Int Med 149:601-611. PMID:1
  8. Schildcrout JS, Jenkins CA, Ostroff JH, Gillen DL, Harrell FE, Trost DC. Analysis of longitudinal laboratory data in the presence of common selection mechanisms: A view towards greater emphasis on pre-marketing pharmaceutical safety. Stat in Med 2008; 27:2248-2266. PMID:17929332
  9. Gabbe SG, Webb LE, Moore DE, Harrell FE, Spickard WA, Powell R. Burnout in medical school deans: an uncommon problem. Acad Med 2008; 83:476-482. PMID:18448902
  10. Baigent C, Harrell FE, Buyse M, Emberson JR, Altman DG. Ensuring trial validity by data quality assurance and diversification of monitoring methods. Clinical Trials 2008; 5:49-55. PMID:18283080
  11. Stukenborg GJ, Wagner DP, Harrell FE, Oliver MN, Heim SW, Price AL, Han CK, Wolf AM, Conners AF. Which hospitals have significantly better or worse than expected mortality rates for acute myocardial infarction patients? Improved risk adjustment with present-at-admission diagnoses. Circulation 2007; 116:2960-8. PMID:18071076
  12. Al-Radi OO, Harrell FE, Caldarone CA, McCrindle BW, Jacobs JP, Williams MG, Van Arsdell GS, Williams WG. Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: A comparative study of the Aristotal Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2007; 133:865-874.
  13. Stukenborg G, Wagner D, Harrell F, Oliver M, Heim S, Price A, Han C, Wolf A, Connors A. Present-at-admission diagnoses improved mortality risk adjustment among acute myocardial infarction patients. J Clin Epi 2007; 60:142-154. PMID:
  14. Norris PR, Ozdas A, Cao H, Williams AE, Harrell FE, Jenkins JM, Morris JA. Cardiac uncoupling and heart rate variability stratify ICU patients by mortality; a study of 2088 trauma patients. Ann Surg 2006; 243:804-812. PMID:16772784
  15. Moons K, Donders R, Stijnen T, Harrell F. Using the outcome for imputation of missing predictor values was preferred. J Clin Epi 2006; 59:1092-1101. PMID:16980150
  16. Rankin JS, Harrell F. Measuring the therapeutic efficacy of coronary revascularization: Implications for future management. J Thor Card Surg 2006; 131:944-948. PMID:16678572
  17. Morris J, Norris P, Ozdas A, Waitman L, Harrell F, Willians A, Cao H, Jenkins J. Reduced heart rate variability: an indicator of cardiac uncoupling and diminished physiologic reserve in 1,425 trauma patients. J Trauma 2006; 60:1165-1173. PMID: 16766957
  18. Rosenbloom S, Harrell F, Lehmann C, Schneider J, Spooner S, Johnson K. Perceived increase in mortality after process and policy changes implemented with computerized physician order entry. Pediatrics 2006; 117:1452-1455. PMID:16585353
  19. Parekh D, Cookson M, Chapman W, Harrell F, Wells N, Chang S, Smith J. Renal cell carcinoma with renal vein and inferior vena caval involvement: clinicopathological features, surgical techniques and outcomes. J Urol 2005; 173:1897-902. PMID:15879771
  20. Goyal S, Prasad D, Harrell F, Matsumoto J, Rich T, Steiner L. Gamma knife surgery for the treatment of intracranial metastases from breast cancer. J Neurosurg 2005; 103:218-23. PMID:16175849
  21. Griffin MP, Lake DE, Bissonette EA, Harrell FE, O'Shea TM, Moorman JR. Heart rate characteristics: Novel physiomarkers to predict neonatal infection and death. Pediatrics 116:1070-1074, 2005.
  22. Stukenborg GJ, Kilbridge KL, Wagner DP, Harrell FE, Oliver MN, Lyman JA, Einbinder J, Connors AF. Present-at-admission diagnoses improve mortality risk-adjustment and allow more accurate assessment of the relationship between volume of lung cancer operations and mortality risk. Surgery 138: 498-507, 2005. Commentary: Twomey P. Tweaking the tools of "Quality" measurement. Surgery 138:508-509, 2005. PMID:16213904
  23. Spindler KP, Kuhn JE, Dunn W, Matthews CE, Harrell FE, Dittus RS. Reading and reviewing the orthpaedic literature: A systematic, evidence-based medicine approach. J Am Acad Orthopaedic Surgeons 13:220-229, 2005.
  24. Moons KG, Donders AR, Steyerberg EW, Harrell FE. Penalized maximum likelihood estimation to directly adjust diagnostic and prognostic prediction models for overoptimism: a clinical example. J Clin Epi 57:1262-1270, 2004. PMID:15617952
  25. Oliver MN, Stukenborg GJ, Wagner DP, Harrell FE, Kilbridge KL, Lyman JA, Einbinder J, Connors AF. Comorbid disease and the effect of race and ethnicity on in-hospital mortality from aspiration pneumonia. J Natl Med Assoc 96:1462-1469, 2004. PMID:15586650
  26. Spindler KP, Kuhn JE, Freedman KB, Matthews CE, Dittus RS, Harrell FE. Anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction autograft choice: Bone-tendon-bone versus hamstring: Does it really matter? A systematic review. Am J Sports Med 32:1986-1995. PMID:15572332
  27. Altes TA, Rehm PK, Harrell FE, Salerno M, Daniel TM, De Lange EE. Ventilation imaging of the lung: comparison of hyperpolarized helium-3 MR imaging with Xe-133 scintigraphy. Acad Radiol 11:729-734, 2004
  28. Burfeind WR, Glower DD, Wechsler AS, Tuttle RH, Shaw LK, Harrell FE, Rankin JS. Single versus multiple internal mammary artery grafting for coronary arter bypass: 15-year follow-up of a clinical practice trial. Circulation 110(11 Suppl 1):II27-35, 2004. PMID:15364834
  29. Kaul S, Senior R, Firschke C, Wang XQ, Lindner J, Villanueva FS, Firozan S, Kontos MC, Taylor A, Nixon IJ, Watson DD, Harrell FE. Incremental value of cardiac imaging in patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain and without ST-segment elevation: a multicenter study. Am Heart J 148:129-136, 2004 Article
  30. Stukenborg GJ, Wagner DP, Harrell FE, Oliver MN, Kilbridge K, Lyman J, Einbinder J, Connors AF. Hospital discharge abstract data on comorbidity improved the prediction of death among patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia. J Clinical Epidemiology 57:522-532, 2004 Abstract
  31. Ely EW, Shintani A, Truman B, Speroff T, Gordon SM, Harrell FE, Inouye SK, Bernard GR, Dittus RS. Delirium as a predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit. JAMA 291(14): 1753-1762, 2004 Abstract
  32. Griffin MP, Oshea TM, Bissonette EA, Harrell FE, Lake DE, Moorman JR. Abnormal heart rate characteristics are associated with neonatal mortality. Pediatrics Research 55(5), 782-788, 2004 Abstract
  33. Griffin MP, O'Shea TM, Bissonette EA, Harrell FE Jr, Lake DE, Moorman JR. Abnormal heart rate characteristics preceding neonatal sepsis and sepsis-like illness. Pediatric Research. 53(6): 920-6, Jun 2003 Abstract
  34. Taylor AG, Galper DI, Taylor P, Rice LW, Andersen W, Irvin W, Wang XQ, Harrell FE Jr. Effects of adjunctive Swedish massage and vibration therapy on short-term postoperative outcomes: a randomized, controlled trial. Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine (new York, N.y.). 9(1): 77-89, Feb 2003 Abstract
  35. Moons KGM, Harrell FE. Sensitivity and specificity should be de-emphasized in diagnostic accuracy studies. Academic Radiology, 10:670 672, 2003. Editorial.
  36. Moons KG, Harrell FE, Steyerberg EW. Should scoring rules be based on odds ratios or regression coefficients?. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 55(10): 1054-5, Oct 2002 Abstract
  37. Wu AW, Young Y, Dawson NV, Brant L, Galanos AN, Broste S, Landefeld SC, Harrell FE, Lynn J. Estimates of future physical functioning by seriously ill hospitalized patients, their families, and their physicians. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 50(2): 230-7, Feb 2002 Abstract
  38. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Habbema JD. Prognostic modeling with logistic regression analysis: in search of a sensible strategy in small data sets. Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making. 21(1): 45-56, 2001 Abstract
  39. Parkerson GR Jr, Harrell FE Jr, Hammond WE, Wang XQ. Characteristics of adult primary care patients as predictors of future health services charges. Medical Care. 39(11): 1170-81, Nov 2001 Abstract
  40. Calnon DA, McGrath PD, Doss AL, Harrell FE Jr, Watson DD, Beller GA. Prognostic value of dobutamine stress technetium-99m-sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging: stratification of a high-risk population. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 38(5): 1511-7, Nov 2001 Abstract
  41. Steyerberg EW, Harrell FE Jr, Borsboom GJ, Eijkemans MJ, Vergouwe Y, Habbema JD. Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 54(8): 774-81, Aug 2001 Abstract
  42. McMahon RP, Harrell FE Jr. Joint testing of mortality and a non-fatal outcome in clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine. 20(8): 1165-72, Apr 2001 Abstract
  43. Stare J, Harrell FE Jr, Heinzl H. BJ: an S-Plus program to fit linear regression models to censored data using the Buckley-James method. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine. 64(1): 45-52, Jan 2001 Abstract
  44. Harrell FE Jr, Shih YC. Using full probability models to compute probabilities of actual interest to decision makers. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 17(1): 17-26, Winter 2001 Abstract
  45. McMahon RP, Harrell FE. Power calculation for clinical trials when the outcome is a composite ranking of survival and a nonfatal outcome. Controlled Clinical Trials. 21(4): 305-12, Aug 2000 Abstract
  46. Teno JM, Harrell FE Jr, Knaus W, Phillips RS, Wu AW, Connors A Jr, Wenger NS, Wagner D, Galanos A, Desbiens NA, Lynn J. Prediction of survival for older hospitalized patients: the HELP survival model. Hospitalized Elderly Longitudinal Project. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 48(5 Suppl): S16-24, May 2000 Abstract
  47. Wenger NS, Lynn J, Oye RK, Liu H, Teno JM, Phillips RS, Desbiens NA, Sehgal A, Kussin P, Taub H, Harrell F, Knaus W. Withholding versus withdrawing life-sustaining treatment: patient factors and documentation associated with dialysis decisions. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 48(5 Suppl): S75-83, May 2000 Abstract
  48. Claessens MT, Lynn J, Zhong Z, Desbiens NA, Phillips RS, Wu AW, Harrell FE Jr, Connors AF Jr. Dying with lung cancer or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: insights from SUPPORT. Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 48(5 Suppl): S146-53, May 2000 Abstract
  49. Teno JM, Fisher E, Hamel MB, Wu AW, Murphy DJ, Wenger NS, Lynn J, Harrell FE Jr. Decision-making and outcomes of prolonged ICU stays in seriously ill patients. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 48(5 Suppl): S70-4, May 2000 Abstract
  50. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Habbema JD. Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets. Statistics in Medicine. 19(8): 1059-79, Apr 2000 Abstract
  51. Weiss JP, Gruver C, Kaul S, Harrell FE Jr, Sklenar J, Dent JM. Ordering an echocardiogram for evaluation of left ventricular function: level of expertise necessary for efficient use. Journal of the American Society of Echocardiography. 13(2): 124-30, Feb 2000 Abstract
  52. Guisan A, Harrell FE. Ordinal response regression models in ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science, 11:617 626, 2000.
  53. Hamel MB, Davis RB, Teno JM, Knaus WA, Lynn J, Harrell F Jr, Galanos AN, Wu AW, Phillips RS. Older age, aggressiveness of care, and survival for seriously ill, hospitalized adults. SUPPORT Investigators. Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments. Annals of Internal Medicine. 131(10): 721-8, Nov 1999 Abstract
  54. Margolis P, Mulholland EK, Harrell FE, Gove S, and the WHO Young Infants Study Group. Clinical prediction of serious bacterial infections in young infants in developing countries. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18S:S23-S31, 1999.
  55. Margolis P, Mulholland EK, Harrell FE, Gove S, and The WHO Young Infants Study Group. Serious infections in young infants in developing countries: Rationale for a multicenter study. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18S:S4-S7, 1999.
  56. Margolis P, Mulholland EK, Harrell FE, Gove S, and The WHO Young Infants Study Group. Methodology for a multicenter study of serious infections in young infants in developing countries. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18S:S8-S16, 1999.
  57. Margolis P, Mulholland EK, Harrell FE, Gove S, and The WHO Young Infants Study Group. Bacterial etiology of serious infections in young infants in developing countries: Results of a multicenter study. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18S:S17-S22, 1999.
  58. Margolis P, Mulholland EK, Harrell FE, Gove S, and The WHO Young Infants Study Group. Conclusions from the WHO multicenter study of serious infections in young infants. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 18S:S32-S34, 1999.
  59. Steyerberg EW, Harrell FE Jr, Goodman PH. Neural networks, logistic regression, and calibration [letter. Medical Decision Making. 18(3): 349-50, 1998 Abstract
  60. Senn S, Harrell FE Jr. On subgroups and groping for significance. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 51(12): 1367-8, Dec 1998 Abstract
  61. Shaw LJ, Peterson ED, Shaw LK, Kesler KL, DeLong? ER, Harrell FE Jr, Muhlbaier LH, Mark DB. Use of a prognostic treadmill score in identifying diagnostic coronary disease subgroups. Circulation. 98(16): 1622-30, Oct 1998 Abstract
  62. Weeks JC, Cook EF, O'Day SJ, Peterson LM, Wenger N, Reding D, Harrell FE, Kussin P, Dawson NV, Connors AF Jr, Lynn J, Phillips RS. Relationship between cancer patients' predictions of prognosis and their treatment preferences. Jama. 279(21): 1709-14, Jun 1998 Abstract
  63. Harrell FE Jr. The inappropriate use of hypothesis testing to infer safety of calcium channel blockers [editorial; comment]. Cardiovascular Drugs and Therapy. 12(2): 151-3; discussion 15, May 1998 Abstract
  64. Harrell FE Jr, Margolis PA, Gove S, Mason KE, Mulholland EK, Lehmann D, Muhe L, Gatchalian S, Eichenwald HF. Development of a clinical prediction model for an ordinal outcome: the World Health Organization Multicentre Study of Clinical Signs and Etiological agents of Pneumonia, Sepsis and Meningitis in Young Infants. WHO/ARI Young Infant Multicentre Study Group. Statistics in Medicine. 17(8): 909-44, Apr 1998 Abstract
  65. Goldstein R, Harrell FE. Survival analysis, software. In Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, Volume 6, p. 4461-4466. Wiley, New York, 1998.
  66. Galanos AN, Pieper CF, Kussin PS, Winchell MT, Fulkerson WJ, Harrell FE Jr, Teno JM, Layde P, Connors AF Jr, Phillips RS, Wenger NS. Relationship of body mass index to subsequent mortality among seriously ill hospitalized patients. SUPPORT Investigators. The Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcome and Risks of Treatments. Critical Care Medicine. 25(12): 1962-8, Dec 1997 Abstract
  67. Chapman IM, Hartman ML, Pezzoli SS, Harrell FE Jr, Hintz RL, Alberti KG, Thorner MO. Effect of aging on the sensitivity of growth hormone secretion to insulin-like growth factor-I negative feedback. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. 82(9): 2996-3004, Sep 1997 Abstract
  68. Califf RM, Adams KF, McKenna WJ, Gheorghiade M, Uretsky BF, McNulty SE, Darius H, Schulman K, Zannad F, Handberg-Thurmond E, Harrell FE Jr, Wheeler W, Soler-Soler J, Swedberg K. A randomized controlled trial of epoprostenol therapy for severe congestive heart failure: The Flolan International Randomized Survival Trial (FIRST). American Heart Journal. 134(1): 44-54, Jul 1997 Abstract
  69. Senn S, Harrell F. On wisdom after the event [comment] [see comments]. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 50(7): 749-51, Jul 1997 Abstract
  70. Califf RM, Woodlief LH, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, White HD, Guerci A, Barbash GI, Simes RJ, Weaver WD, Simoons ML, Topol EJ. Selection of thrombolytic therapy for individual patients: development of a clinical model. GUSTO-I Investigators. American Heart Journal. 133(6): 630-9, Jun 1997 Abstract
  71. Lynn J, Harrell F Jr, Cohn F, Wagner D, Connors AF Jr. Prognoses of seriously ill hospitalized patients on the days before death: implications for patient care and public policy. New Horizons. 5(1): 56-61, Feb 1997 Abstract
  72. Burke HB, Goodman PH, Rosen DB, Henson DE, Weinstein JN, Harrell FE Jr, Marks JR, Winchester DP, Bostwick DG. Artificial neural networks improve the accuracy of cancer survival prediction. Cancer. 79(4): 857-62, Feb 1997 Abstract
  73. Harrell FE, Goldstein R. A survey of microcomputer survival analysis software: The need for an integrated framework. American Statistician, 51:360 373, 1997.
  74. Lynn J, Harrell FE, Cohn F, Hamel M, Dawson N, Wu AW. Defining the 'terminally ill': insights from SUPPORT. Duquesne Law Review. 35(1): 311-36, 1996 Abstract
  75. Ohman EM, Armstrong PW, Christenson RH, Granger CB, Katus HA, Hamm CW, O'Hanesian MA, Wagner GS, Kleiman NS, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Topol EJ. Cardiac troponin T levels for risk stratification in acute myocardial ischemia. GUSTO IIA Investigators. New England Journal of Medicine. 335(18): 1333-41, Oct 1996 Abstract
  76. Connors AF Jr, Speroff T, Dawson NV, Thomas C, Harrell FE Jr, Wagner D, Desbiens N, Goldman L, Wu AW, Califf RM, Fulkerson WJ Jr, Vidaillet H, Broste S, Bellamy P, Lynn J, Knaus WA. The effectiveness of right heart catheterization in the initial care of critically ill patients. SUPPORT Investigators. Jama. 276(11): 889-97, Sep 1996 Abstract
  77. Hakim RB, Teno JM, Harrell FE Jr, Knaus WA, Wenger N, Phillips RS, Layde P, Califf R, Connors AF Jr, Lynn J. Factors associated with do-not-resuscitate orders: patients' preferences, prognoses, and physicians' judgments. SUPPORT Investigators. Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatment. Annals of Internal Medicine. 125(4): 284-93, Aug 1996 Abstract
  78. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB. Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors. Statistics in Medicine. 15(4): 361-87, Feb 1996 Abstract
  79. Knaus WA, Harrell FE Jr, LaBrecque? JF, Wagner DP, Pribble JP, Draper EA, Fisher CJ Jr, Soll L. Use of predicted risk of mortality to evaluate the efficacy of anticytokine therapy in sepsis. The rhIL-1ra Phase III Sepsis Syndrome Study Group. Critical Care Medicine. 24(1): 46-56, Jan 1996 Abstract
  80. Connors AF, Dawson NV, Thomas C, Harrell FE, Desbiens N, Fulkerson WJ, Kussin P, Bellamy P, Goldman L, Knaus WA. Outcomes following acute exacerbation of severe chronic obstructive lung disease. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 154: 959-67, 1996
  81. Harrell FE. Regression coefficients and scoring rules. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 49:819, 1996. Refereed letter to the editor. 1 Herndon JE 2nd, Harrell FE Jr. The restricted cubic spline as baseline hazard in the proportional hazards model with step function time-dependent covariables. Statistics in Medicine. 14(19): 2119-29, Oct 1995 Abstract
  82. Lynn J, Teno JM, Harrell FE Jr. Accurate prognostications of death. Opportunities and challenges for clinicians. Western Journal of Medicine. 163(3): 250-7, Sep 1995 Abstract
  83. Smith SR, Minda SA, Samsa GP, Harrell FE Jr, Gunnells JC, Coffman TM, Butterly DW. Late withdrawal of cyclosporine in stable renal transplant recipients. American Journal of Kidney Diseases. 26(3): 487-94, Sep 1995 Abstract
  84. Hamel MB, Goldman L, Teno J, Lynn J, Davis RB, Harrell FE Jr, Connors AF Jr, Califf R, Kussin P, Bellamy P, et al. Identification of comatose patients at high risk for death or severe disability. SUPPORT Investigators. Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments. Jama. 273(23): 1842-8, Jun 1995 Abstract
  85. Wu AW, Damiano AM, Lynn J, Alzola C, Teno J, Landefeld CS, Desbiens N, Tsevat J, Mayer-Oakes A, Harrell FE Jr, et al. Predicting future functional status for seriously ill hospitalized adults. The SUPPORT prognostic model. Annals of Internal Medicine. 122(5): 342-50, Mar 1995 Abstract
  86. Knaus WA, Harrell FE Jr, Lynn J, Goldman L, Phillips RS, Connors AF Jr, Dawson NV, Fulkerson WJ Jr, Califf RM, Desbiens N, et al. The SUPPORT prognostic model. Objective estimates of survival for seriously ill hospitalized adults. Study to understand prognoses and preferences for outcomes and risks of treatments. Annals of Internal Medicine. 122(3): 191-203, Feb 1995 Abstract
  87. Arkes HR, Dawson NV, Speroff T, Harrell FE Jr, Alzola C, Phillips R, Desbiens N, Oye RK, Knaus W, Connors AF Jr. The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates. SUPPORT Investigators. Medical Decision Making. 15(2): 120-31, 1995 Abstract
  88. Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Naylor CD, Lee KL, Armstrong PW, Bar-bash G, White H, Simoons ML, Nelson CL, Clapp-Channing N, Knight JD, Harrell FE, Simes, Topol EJ. Cost effectiveness of thrombolytic therapy with tissue plasminogen activator as compared with streptokinase for acute myocardial infarction. New England Journal of Medicine, 332:1418 1424, 1995.
  89. Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Sun X, Harrell FE, Hedstrom JS. Risk assessment in recent clinical trials in sepsis / SIRS: Lessons learned and future directions. Journal of Endotoxin Research, 2:169 175, 1995.
  90. The SUPPORT Principal Investigators. A controlled trial to improve care for seriously ill hospitalized patients. Journal of the American Medical Association, 274:1591 1598, 1995.
  91. Durack DT, Lukes AS, Bright DK, Alberts MJ, Bashore TM, Corey GR, Douglas JM, Gray L, Harrell FE, Harrison JK, Heinle SA, Morris A, Kisslo JA, Nicely LM, Oldham N, Penning LM, Sexton DJ, Towns M, Waugh RA. New criteria for diagnosis of infective endocarditis - utilization of specific echocardiographic findings. Am J Med, 96:200-209, 1994.
  92. Wagner DP, Knaus WA, Harrell FE, Zimmerman JE, Watts C. Daily prognostic estimates for critically ill adults in intensive care units: results from a prospective, multicenter, inception cohort analysis. Critical Care Medicine. 22(9): 1359-72, Sep 1994 Abstract
  93. Mark DB, Nelson CL, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Jones RH, Fortin DF, Stack RS, Glower DD, Smith LR, et al. Continuing evolution of therapy for coronary artery disease. Initial results from the era of coronary angioplasty. Circulation. 89(5): 2015-25, May 1994 Abstract
  94. Margolis PA, Ferkol TW, Marsocci S, Super DM, Keyes LL, McNutt R, Harrell FE Jr. Accuracy of the clinical examination in detecting hypoxemia in infants with respiratory illness. Journal of Pediatrics. 124(4): 552-60, Apr 1994 Abstract
  95. Krucoff MW, Green CL, Harrell FE, Simoons ML, Wilderman NM, Trollinger KM, Sawchak ST, Pope JE, Shah A, Granger CB, et al. From signal/noise to information content/noise. Reconsidering the statistical analysis of continuous ST-segment data streams with gaps: potential optimization of application-specific information content using left, right, and interval censoring. Journal of Electrocardiology. 27 Suppl: 233-7, 1994 Abstract
  96. Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Harrell FE, Draper EA. What determines prognosis in sepsis? Evidence for a comprehensive individual patient risk assessment approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials. Theoretical Surgery, 9:20 27, 1994.
  97. Teno JM, Murphy D, Lynn J, Tosteson A, Desbiens N, Connors AF, Hamel MB, Wu A, Phillips R, Wenger N, Harrell FE, Knaus WA, and the SUPPORT Investigators. Prognosis-based futility guidelines: Does anyone win? Journal of the American Geriatric Society, 42:1202 1207, 1994.
  98. Knaus WA, Harrell FE, Fisher CJ Jr, Wagner DP, Opal SM, Sadoff JC, Draper EA, Walawander CA, Conboy K, Grasela TH. The clinical evaluation of new drugs for sepsis. A prospective study design based on survival analysis. Jama. 270(10): 1233-41, Sep 1993 Abstract
  99. Dudley RA, Harrell FE Jr, Smith LR, Mark DB, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Glower D, Lipscomb J, Hlatky M. Comparison of analytic models for estimating the effect of clinical factors on the cost of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 46(3): 261-71, Mar 1993 Abstract
  100. Pryor DB, Shaw L, McCants CB, Lee KL, Mark DB, Harrell FE Jr, Muhlbaier LH, Califf RM. Value of the history and physical in identifying patients at increased risk for coronary artery disease. Annals of Internal Medicine. 118(2): 81-90, Jan 1993 Abstract
  101. Muhlbaier LH, Pryor DB, Rankin JS, Smith LR, Mark DB, Jones RH, Glower DD, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, et al. Observational comparison of event-free survival with medical and surgical therapy in patients with coronary artery disease. 20 years of follow-up. Circulation. 86(5 Suppl): II198-204, Nov 1992 Abstract
  102. McClelland JH, Daubert JP, Kavanagh KM, Harrell FE Jr, Ideker RE. High and low strength nonsynchronized shocks given during canine ventricular tachycardia. Pacing and Clinical Electrophysiology. 15(7): 986-92, Jul 1992 Abstract
  103. Linzer M, Prystowsky EN, Divine GW, Matchar DB, Samsa G, Harrell F Jr, Pressley JC, Pryor DB. Predicting the outcomes of electrophysiologic studies of patients with unexplained syncope: preliminary validation of a derived model. Journal of General Internal Medicine. 6(2): 113-20, 1991 Abstract
  104. Smith LR, Harrell FE Jr, Rankin JS, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Muhlbaier LH, Lee KL, Mark DB, Jones RH, Oldham HN, et al. Determinants of early versus late cardiac death in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation. 84(5 Suppl): III245-53, Nov 1991 Abstract
  105. Mark DB, Shaw L, Harrell FE Jr, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Bengtson JR, McCants CB, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Prognostic value of a treadmill exercise score in outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease. New England Journal of Medicine. 325(12): 849-53, Sep 1991 Abstract
  106. Pryor DB, Shaw L, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Muhlbaier LH, Califf RM. Estimating the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease. American Journal of Medicine. 90(5): 553-62, May 1991 Abstract
  107. Brazer SR, Pancotto FS, Long TT 3d, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Tyor MP, Pryor DB. Using ordinal logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of colorectal neoplasia. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 44(11): 1263-70, 1991 Abstract
  108. Kirklin JW, Akins CW, Blackstone EH, Booth DC, Califf RM, Cohen LS, Hall R, Harrell FE, et al. Guidelines and indications for coronary artery bypass graft surgery A report of the American College of Cardiology / American Heart Association Task Force on Assessment of Diagnostic and Therapeutic Cardiovascular Procedures, Subcommittee on Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 17:543 589, 1991.
  109. Knaus WA, Wagner DP, Draper EA, Zimmerman JE, Bergner M, Bastos PG, Sirio CA, Murphy DJ, Lotring T, Damiano A, Harrell FE. The APACHE III prognostic system. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults. Chest, 100:1619 1636, 1991.
  110. Lee KL, Pryor DB, Pieper KS, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Coleman RE, Cobb FR, Jones RH. Prognostic value of radionuclide angiography in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. A comparison with clinical and catheterization variables. Circulation. 82(5): 1705-17, Nov 1990 Abstract
  111. Honan MB, Harrell FE Jr, Reimer KA, Califf RM, Mark DB, Pryor DB, Hlatky MA. Cardiac rupture, mortality and the timing of thrombolytic therapy: a meta-analysis. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 16(2): 359-67, Aug 1990 Abstract
  112. Brazer SR, Tyor MP, Pancotto FS, Nickl NJ, Wildermann NM, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB. Studies of gastric ulcer disease by community-based gastroenterologists. American Journal of Gastroenterology. 85(7): 824-8, Jul 1990 Abstract
  113. Siegel WC, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Barefoot JC, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB, Williams RB Jr. Effect of Type A behavior on exercise test outcome in coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 66(2): 179-82, Jul 1990 Abstract
  114. Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB, Muhlbaier LH, Pryor DB. Clinical judgment and therapeutic decision making. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 15(1): 1-14, Jan 1990 Abstract
  115. Pratt CM, Brater DC, Harrell FE Jr, Kowey PR, Leier CV, Lowenthal DT, Messerli F, Packer M, Pritchett EL, Ruskin JN. Clinical and regulatory implications of the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial. American Journal of Cardiology. 65(1): 103-5, Jan 1990 Abstract
  116. Harrell FE Jr, Marcus SE, Layde PM, Broste SK, Cook EF, Wagner DP, Muhlbaier LH, Peck SL. Statistical methods in SUPPORT. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 43 Suppl: 89S-98S, 1990 Abstract
  117. Herndon FE, Harrell FE. The restricted cubic spline hazard model. Com-munications in Statistics Theory and Methods, 19:639 663, 1990.
  118. Peterson B, Harrell FE. Partial proportional odds models for ordinal re-sponse variables. Applied Statistics, 39:205 217, 1990.
  119. Siegel WC, Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB, Barefoot JC, Williams RB Jr. Clinical correlates and prognostic significance of type A behavior and silent myocardial ischemia on the treadmill. American Journal of Cardiology. 64(19): 1280-3, Dec 1989 Abstract
  120. Spanos A, Harrell FE Jr, Durack DT. Differential diagnosis of acute meningitis. An analysis of the predictive value of initial observations. Jama. 262(19): 2700-7, Nov 1989 Abstract
  121. Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Morris JJ Jr, Sisson SD, McCants CB, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB. Painless exercise ST deviation on the treadmill: long-term prognosis. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 14(4): 885-92, Oct 1989 Abstract
  122. Barefoot JC, Peterson BL, Harrell FE Jr, Hlatky MA, Pryor DB, Haney TL, Blumenthal JA, Siegler IC, Williams RB Jr. Type A behavior and survival: a follow-up study of 1,467 patients with coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 64(8): 427-32, Sep 1989 Abstract
  123. Brazer SR, Tyor MP, Pancotto FS, Brice RS, Garbutt JT Jr, Wildermann NM, Harrell FE, Pryor DB, Liss CL, Root JK, et al. Randomized, double-blind comparison of famotidine with ranitidine in treatment of acute, benign gastric ulcer disease. Community-based study coupled with a patient registry. Digestive Diseases and Sciences. 34(7): 1047-52, Jul 1989 Abstract
  124. Kong DF, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Boswick JM, Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Clinical experience and predicting survival in coronary disease. Archives of Internal Medicine. 149(5): 1177-81, May 1989 Abstract
  125. Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rankin JS, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Jones RH, Muhlbaier LH, Oldham HN Jr, Pryor DB. The evolution of medical and surgical therapy for coronary artery disease. A 15-year perspective. Jama. 261(14): 2077-86, Apr 1989 Abstract
  126. Williams RB Jr, Barefoot JC, Haney TL, Harrell FE Jr, Blumenthal JA, Pryor DB, Peterson B. Type A behavior and angiographically documented coronary atherosclerosis in a sample of 2,289 patients. Psychosomatic Medicine. 50(2): 139-52, 1988 Abstract
  127. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pollock BG. Regression models in clinical studies: determining relationships between predictors and response. Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 80(15): 1198-202, Oct 1988 Abstract
  128. Hickey MS, Smith LR, Muhlbaier LH, Harrell FE Jr, Reves JG, Hinohara T, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Rankin JS. Current prognosis of ischemic mitral regurgitation. Implications for future management. Circulation. 78(3 Pt 2): I51-9, Sep 1988 Abstract
  129. Bounous EP, Mark DB, Pollock BG, Hlatky MA, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rankin JS, Wechsler AS, Pryor DB, Califf RM. Surgical survival benefits for coronary disease patients with left ventricular dysfunction. Circulation. 78(3 Pt 2): I151-7, Sep 1988 Abstract
  130. Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rankin JS, Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Muhlbaier LH, Wechsler AS, Jones RH, Oldham HN Jr, et al. Changing efficacy of coronary revascularization. Implications for patient selection. Circulation. 78(3 Pt 2): I185-91, Sep 1988 Abstract
  131. Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB, Pryor DB. Comparison of predictions based on observational data with the results of randomized controlled clinical trials of coronary artery bypass surgery. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 11(2): 237-45, Feb 1988 Abstract
  132. Califf RM, Mark DB, Harrell FE Jr, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Rosati RA, Pryor DB. Importance of clinical measures of ischemia in the prognosis of patients with documented coronary artery disease. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 11(1): 20-6, Jan 1988 Abstract
  133. Bounous EP Jr, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Hinohara T, Mark DB, Ideker RE, Selvester RH, Wagner GS. Prognostic value of the simplified Selvester QRS score in patients with coronary artery disease. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 11(1): 35-41, Jan 1988 Abstract
  134. Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Rankin JS, Lee KL, Muhlbaier LH, Oldham HN, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Reves JG, Califf RM. The changing survival benefits of coronary revascularization over time. Circulation. 76(5 Pt 2): V13-21, Nov 1987 Abstract
  135. Slater DK, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB, Califf RM. Outcome in suspected acute myocardial infarction with normal or minimally abnormal admission electrocardiographic findings. American Journal of Cardiology. 60(10): 766-70, Oct 1987 Abstract
  136. Vidaillet HJ Jr, Pressley JC, Henke E, Harrell FE Jr, German LD. Familial occurrence of accessory atrioventricular pathways (preexcitation syndrome). New England Journal of Medicine. 317(2): 65-9, Jul 1987 Abstract
  137. Lederman SN, Wenger TL, Harrell FE Jr, Strauss HC. Effects of different paced heart rates on canine coronary occlusion and reperfusion arrhythmias. American Heart Journal. 113(6): 1365-9, Jun 1987 Abstract
  138. Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Exercise treadmill score for predicting prognosis in coronary artery disease. Annals of Internal Medicine. 106(6): 793-800, Jun 1987 Abstract
  139. Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Rethinking sensitivity and specificity. American Journal of Cardiology. 59(12): 1195-8, May 1987 Abstract
  140. Kay GN, Pryor DB, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Pressley JC, Gilbert MR, German LD. Comparison of survival of amiodarone-treated patients with coronary artery disease and malignant ventricular arrhythmias with that of a control group with coronary artery disease. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 9(4): 877-81, Apr 1987 Abstract
  141. Chu A, Califf RM, Pryor DB, McKinnis RA, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Curtis SE, Oldham HN Jr, Wagner GS. Prognostic effect of bundle branch block related to coronary artery bypass grafting. American Journal of Cardiology. 59(8): 798-803, Apr 1987 Abstract
  142. Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Localizing coronary artery obstructions with the exercise treadmill test. Annals of Internal Medicine. 106(1): 53-5, Jan 1987 Abstract
  143. Harris RE, Harrell FE Jr, Patil KD, Al-Rashid R. The seasonal risk of pediatric/juvenile acute lymphocytic leukemia in the United States. Journal of Chronic Diseases. 40(10): 915-23, 1987 Abstract
  144. Harrell FE, Lee KL. Simple tests of global association in the logistic model. American Statistician, 41:87, 1987. Refereed letter to the editor.
  145. Williams RB Jr, Haney TL, McKinnis RA, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pryor DB, Califf R, Kong YH, Rosati RA, Blumenthal JA. Psychosocial and physical predictors of anginal pain relief with medical management. Psychosomatic Medicine. 48(3-4): 200-10, 1986 Abstract
  146. Papanicolaou MN, Califf RM, Hlatky MA, McKinnis RA, Harrell FE Jr, Mark DB, McCants B, Rosati RA, Lee KL, Pryor DB. Prognostic implications of angiographically normal and insignificantly narrowed coronary arteries. American Journal of Cardiology. 58(13): 1181-7, Dec 1986 Abstract
  147. Hindman N, Grande P, Harrell FE Jr, Anderson C, Harrison D, Ideker RE, Selvester RH, Wagner GS. Relation between electrocardiographic and enzymatic methods of estimating acute myocardial infarct size. American Journal of Cardiology. 58(1): 31-5, Jul 1986 Abstract
  148. Lee KL, Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Behar VS, Floyd WL, Morris JJ, Waugh RA, Whalen RE, Rosati RA. Predicting outcome in coronary disease. Statistical models versus expert clinicians. American Journal of Medicine. 80(4): 553-60, Apr 1986 Abstract
  149. Califf RM, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Rosati RA, Pryor DB. Randomized trials of coronary artery bypass surgery: impact on clinical practice at Duke University Medical Center. Circulation. 72(6 Pt 2): V136-44, Dec 1985 Abstract
  150. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Matchar DB, Reichert TA. Regression models for prognostic prediction: advantages, problems, and suggested solutions. Cancer Treatment Reports. 69(10): 1071-77, Oct 1985 Abstract
  151. Pryor DB, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Mark DB, Rosati RA. Clinical data bases. Accomplishments and unrealized potential. Medical Care. 23(5): 623-47, May 1985 Abstract
  152. Harrell FE, Lee KL. A comparison of the discrimination of discriminant analysis and logistic regression under multivariate normality. In P. K. Sen, editor, Biostatistics: Statis-tics in Biomedical, Public Health, and Environmental Sciences. The Bernard G. Greenberg Volume, pages 333 343. North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1985.
  153. Califf RM, Phillips HR, et al. Prognostic value of a coronary artery jeopardy score. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 5:1055 1063, 1985.
  154. Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Mark DB, Rosati RA. Tying clinical research to patient care by use of an observational database. Statistics in Medicine. 3(4): 375-87, 1984 Abstract
  155. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Rosati RA. Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction. Statistics in Medicine. 3(2): 143-52, 1984 Abstract
  156. Hlatky MA, Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Mark DB, Rosati RA. Factors affecting sensitivity and specificity of exercise electrocardiography. Multivariable analysis. American Journal of Medicine. 77(1): 64-71, Jul 1984 Abstract
  157. Califf RM, Conley MJ, Behar VS, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pryor DB, McKinnis RA, Rosati RA. 'Left main equivalent' coronary artery disease: its clinical presentation and prognostic significance with nonsurgical therapy. American Journal of Cardiology. 53(11): 1489-95, Jun 1984 Abstract
  158. Mark DB, Califf RM, Morris KG, Harrell FE Jr, Pryor DB, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Rosati RA. Clinical characteristics and long-term survival of patients with variant angina. Circulation. 69(5): 880-8, May 1984 Abstract
  159. Wenger TL, Harrell FE Jr, Brown KK, Lederman S, Strauss HC. Ventricular fibrillation following canine coronary artery reperfusion: different outcomes with pentobarbital and alpha-chloralose. Canadian Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology. 62(2): 224-8, Feb 1984 Abstract
  160. Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rosati RA, Coleman RE, Cobb FR, Califf RM, Jones RH. Prognostic indicators from radionuclide angiography in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 53(1): 18-22, Jan 1984 Abstract
  161. Pryor DB, Lee KL, Harris PJ, Harrell FE Jr, Rosati RA. The effect of crossovers on estimates of survival in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. Journal of Chronic Diseases. 37(7): 521-9, 1984 Abstract
  162. Califf RM, McKinnis RA, McNeer JF, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pryor DB, Waugh RA, Harris PJ, Rosati RA, Wagner GS. Prognostic value of ventricular arrhythmias associated with treadmill exercise testing in patients studied with cardiac catheterization for suspected ischemic heart disease. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 2(6): 1060-7, Dec 1983 Abstract
  163. Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Rosati RA. Estimating the likelihood of significant coronary artery disease. American Journal of Medicine. 75(5): 771-80, Nov 1983 Abstract
  164. Roberts KB, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Pryor DB, Rosati RA. The prognosis for patients with new-onset angina who have undergone cardiac catheterization. Circulation. 68(5): 970-8, Nov 1983 Abstract
  165. Gibbons RJ, Lee KL, Pryor D, Harrell FE Jr, Coleman RE, Cobb FR, Rosati RA, Jones RH. The use of radionuclide angiography in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease--a logistic regression analysis. Circulation. 68(4): 740-6, Oct 1983 Abstract
  166. Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Rosati RA. An improving prognosis over time in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 52(5): 444-8, Sep 1983 Abstract
  167. Kinney HC, Burger PC, Harrell FE Jr, Hudson RP Jr. 'Reactive gliosis' in the medulla oblongata of victims of the sudden infant death syndrome. Pediatrics. 72(2): 181-7, Aug 1983 Abstract
  168. Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Kong Y, Harrell FE Jr, Rosati RA. Natural history of patients with single-vessel disease suitable for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty. American Journal of Cardiology. 52(3): 225-9, Aug 1983 Abstract
  169. Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Tolley HD, Rosati RA. A comparison of test statistics for assessing the effects of concomitant variables in survival analysis. Biometrics. 39(2): 341-50, Jun 1983 Abstract
  170. Califf RM, Tomabechi Y, Lee KL, Phillips H, Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Harris PJ, Peter RH, Behar VS, Kong Y, Rosati RA. Outcome in one-vessel coronary artery disease. Circulation. 67(2): 283-90, Feb 1983 Abstract
  171. Califf RM, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Kimm SY, Grufferman S, Rosati RA. Assessment of the use of the age- and sex-specific United States population as a control group for analysis of survival in coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 50(6): 1279-82, Dec 1982 Abstract
  172. Hammill SC, Shand DG, Harrell FE Jr, Zimmerman JM, Reiter MJ, Verghese C, Pritchett EL. Pirmenol kinetics and effective oral dose. Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. 32(6): 686-91, Dec 1982 Abstract
  173. Goldman L, Cook EF, Mitchell N, Flatley M, Sherman H, Rosati R, Harrell F, Lee K, Cohn PF. Incremental value of the exercise test for diagnosing the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Circulation. 66(5): 945-53, Nov 1982 Abstract
  174. Austin M, Wenger TL, Harrell FE Jr, Luzzi FA, Strauss HC. Effect of myocardium at risk on outcome after coronary artery occlusion and release. American Journal of Physiology. 243(2): H340-5, Aug 1982 Abstract
  175. Califf RM, McKinnis RA, Burks J, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Behar VS, Pryor DB, Wagner GS, Rosati RA. Prognostic implications of ventricular arrhythmias during 24 hour ambulatory monitoring in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization for coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 50(1): 23-31, Jul 1982 Abstract
  176. Whalen RE, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rosati RA. Survival of coronary artery disease patients with stable pain and normal left ventricular function treated medically or surgically at Duke University. Circulation. 65(7 Pt 2): 49-52, Jun 1982 Abstract
  177. Rosati RA, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr. Problems and advantages of an observational data base approach to evaluating the effect of therapy on outcome. Circulation. 65(7 Pt 2): 27-32, Jun 1982 Abstract
  178. Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Lee KL, Rosati RA. Evaluating the yield of medical tests. Jama. 247(18): 2543-6, May 1982 Abstract
  179. Wagner GS, Freye CJ, Palmeri ST, Roark SF, Stack NC, Ideker RE, Harrell FE Jr, Selvester RH. Evaluation of a QRS scoring system for estimating myocardial infarct size. I. Specificity and observer agreement. Circulation. 65(2): 342-7, Feb 1982 Abstract
  180. Palmeri ST, Harrison DG, Cobb FR, Morris KG, Harrell FE, Ideker RE, Selvester RH, Wagner GS. A QRS scoring system for assessing left ventricular function after myocardial infarction. New England Journal of Medicine. 306(1): 4-9, Jan 1982 Abstract
  181. Harrell FE, Davis CE. A new distribution-free quantile estimator. Biometrika, 69:635 640, 1982.
  182. Califf RM, Bounous EP, Harrell FE, McCants? CB, Lee KL, McKinnis? RA, Rosati RA. The prognosis in the presence of coronary artery disease. In Braunwald, Mock, and Watson, editors, Congestive Heart Failure: Current Research and Clinical Applications. Grune and Stratton, New York, 1982.
  183. Dohrmann ML, Harrell FE Jr, Strauss HC. The effects of disobutamide on electrophysiologic properties of canine cardiac Purkinje fibers and papillary muscle. Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics. 217(3): 549-54, Jun 1981 Abstract
  184. Harris PJ, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rosati RA. Nonfatal myocardial infarction in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. American Journal of Cardiology. 46(6): 937-42, Dec 1980 Abstract
  185. Harris PJ, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Behar VS, Rosati RA. Outcome in medically treated coronary artery disease. Ischemic events: nonfatal infarction and death. Circulation. 62(4): 718-26, Oct 1980 Abstract
  186. Harris PJ, Behar VS, Conley MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Peter RH, Kong Y, Rosati RA. The prognostic significance of 50% coronary stenosis in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. Circulation. 62(2): 240-8, Aug 1980 Abstract
  187. Starmer CF, Lee KL, Harrell FE, Rosati RA. On the complexity of investigating chronic illness. Biometrics. 36(2): 333-5, Jun 1980 Abstract
  188. Wenger TL, Browning DJ, Masterton CE, Abou-Donia MB, Harrell FE Jr, Bache RJ, Strauss HC. Procainamide delivery to ischemic canine myocardium following rapid intravenous administration. Circulation Research. 46(6): 789-95, Jun 1980 Abstract
  189. Fraker TD Jr, Wise NK, Harrell FE Jr, Behar VS. Comparison of biplane and single plane left ventricular volumes in atrial septal defect. Catheterization and Cardiovascular Diagnosis. 6(1): 39-48, 1980 Abstract
  190. Harris PJ, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Behar VS, Rosati RA. Survival in medically treated coronary artery disease. Circulation. 60(6): 1259-69, Dec 1979 Abstract
  191. Harrell FE, Sen PK. Statistical inference for censored bivariate normal distributions based on induced order statistics. Biometrika, 66:293 298, 1979.
  192. Smith M, Ratshin RA, Harrell FE Jr, Russell RO Jr, Rackley CE. Early sequential changes in left ventricular dimensions and filling pressure in patients after myocardial infarction. American Journal of Cardiology. 33(3): 363-9, Mar 1974 Abstract

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  • American Statistical Association
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Brief Biography

  • Professor, Dept. of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt School of Medicine
  • PhD Biostatistics UNC Chapel Hill
  • Faculty of Duke U for 17 years
  • Founding Chief, Div. of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, UVa
  • Founding Chair, Dept. of Biostatistics, VU, 2003-
  • Fellow, American Statistical Association
  • 2008 Mitchell Lecturer, Glasgow University Dept. of Statistics
  • Distinguished alumnus award from UAB Science and Math
  • FDA expert consultant
  • Member, NIH Biostatistical Methods and Research Design Study Section
  • Leader, Design, Biostatistics, and Clinical Research Ethics program for the Vanderbilt NIH CTSA
  • Associate Editor, Statistics in Medicine
  • Author of most cited article in history of Statistics in Medicine by 2:1 margin; also author of the third most cited article
  • 188 Peer-reviewed publications
  • Interests: clinical predictive models, model validation, diagnosis and prognosis, clinical trials, health services research, drug safety, missing data, Bayesian statistics, statistical computing and graphics

Brief Biography Text

Dr. Harrell received his PhD in Biostatistics from the University of North Carolina in 1979. He was on the faculty of Duke University for 17 years and of the University of Virginia for 7 years. He founded the Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the University of Virginia School of Medicine in 1996 and the Department of Biostatistics at Vanderbilt University in 2003. He has taught biostatistics and research methodology to hundreds of physicians since 1980 and has been a mentor or co-mentor to several physician investigators. He is an Associate Editor for Statistics in Medicine, and his specialties are development of accurate prognostic and diagnostic models, model validation, clinical trials, observational clinical research, technology evaluation, quantifying predictive accuracy, and missing data imputation.

Dr. Harrell is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and is the 2008 Mitchell Lecturer for the Department of Statistics, Glasgow University. He is an FDA expert consultant and a member of the NIH Biostatistical Methods and Research Design Study Section. He is the leader of the Design, Biostatistics, and Clinical Research Ethics program for the Vanderbilt NIH CTSA and is the director of the Statistics and Methodology Core for the Vanderbilt Kennedy Center for Research on Human Development. He is the author of the first and third most cited papers (on development of prognostic models) in the 26 year history of Statistics in Medicine and has 188 peer-reviewed publications. His latest areas of emphasis are pharmaceutical safety, flexible Bayesian clinical trial design and Bayesian analysis, and graphical and tabular methods for reporting analyses from clinical trials.

Brief Areas of Expertise

Statistical modeling and model validation; diagnosis and prognosis; statistical computing, reporting, and graphics; cardiovascular disease; clinical trials, pharmaceutical research, and safety assessment; survival analysis; missing data; bootstrap
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